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Swine flu 'real threat'
SBUH epidemiologist warns LIer's
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May 01, 2009 | 11:58 AM
The Stony Brook University Hospital epidemiologist said Thursday a worldwide pandemic, as a result of the swine flu apparently originating in Mexico last month, is "a real threat" and warned the public to take it seriously.
"This is a novel virus" — meaning it has not been identified before by medical science — and therefore "everyone is considered susceptible," said Dr. Susan Donelan, assistant professor of clinical medicine and director of the Department of Healthcare Epidemiology at SBU Medical Center.
Strains of influenza that have previously affected people often leave behind an immunity to contracting that particular strain in the future, according to Dr. Donelan. But because the swine flu strain, H1N1, seems to be new, no one has any natural immunity by that means.
The SBUH epidemiologist was, however, cautiously optimistic in one way. "We are in the gratifying position that we recognized the potential early on," she said, and therefore the United States medical community may be able to "mitigate" the seriousness of the outbreak.
Dr. Donelan said antiviral drugs like oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and zanamivir (Relenza) appear to be effective against swine flu. Older antivirals are not, she said. "The virus is resistant to those."
Two "probable cases" of swine flu have been reported in Suffolk, the county Department of Health Services said Friday. The first was from Deer Park. A state Health Department statement said that case had "links" to St. Francis Prep School in Queens, where the U.S. outbreak was first confirmed. A class from the school had recently returned from a trip to Mexico.
A second case, a 50-year-old man from Holbrook who works at the same school, was treated at Mather Hospital in Port Jefferson on April 28. He was not hospitalized and is reported to be recovering at home.
According to the SCDHS statement, 25 samples have been sent to the state health department for testing thus far. Two cases were found to be "probable" H1N1 influenza, 13 were negative, one tested positive for Influenza A, H3N2, this season's most common strain, and nine were still being tested as of the Friday announcement. The state Department of Health has posted information on the swine flu on its website, www.health.state.ny.us.
The New York State Education Department issued a statement April 29 which read, in part: "In response to the national public health emergency declared for the confirmed cases of swine flu (influenza A H1N1), students, faculty and staff are urged to monitor this developing situation closely and take precautions to prevent the spread of influenza." The statement and further information is available at the DOE website, www.nysed.gov.
A joint statement to school districts across the state from DOE Commissioner Richard Mills and Dr. Daines included a suggested press release, a "model letter to parents" and a list of "talking points for NYS school officials." The information was quickly posted to many district's websites, including Three Village in Setauket and Stony Brook. Superintendent Ralph Ferrie urged all parents to review the information. Ferrie said the district's staff and faculty have been "alerted" and asked to "encourage hygiene" among students to deter the spread of swine flu or any other infectious diseases.
A DOH "fact sheet" included information on influenza and attempted to keep the current swine flu outbreak in perspective. "Some people, such as older people, young children and people with certain health conditions, are at high risk for serious flu complications," the statement read. "Every year in the United States, on average: 5 percent to 20 percent of the population gets the flu; … and about 36,000 people die from flu."
"Every hospital has a pandemic influenza readiness plan," said Dr. Donelan, which has been required for several years by the CDC. She said it was "the first time ever," though, that the World Health Organization has declared a Level 5 warning of a potential worldwide pandemic.
Over 330 confirmed cases have been reported in 11 countries as of May 1, according to WHO, which added, "The United States Government has reported 109 laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death. Mexico has reported 156 confirmed human cases of infection, including nine deaths." The U.N.'s WHO is posting daily updates at www.who.int.
Dr. Donelan would not speculate on why the death rate appeared significantly higher in Mexico than in the U.S. She suggested that swifter data collection here and a far higher number of cases as yet unconfirmed in Mexico could be skewing the statistics.
The SBUMC epidemiologist suggested that parents consider alternative arrangements should local schools be forced to close. Although not suggesting the inevitablity of such a scenario, Dr. Donelan's said having a plan "just in case" would be wise for every family.
Read more, including how the CDC suggests you protect yourself and your family, in our Arts & Lifestyles section this week.
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